the Basic rules for constructing:
Х the longer the period of time on which to build the average, the smaller the order of the medium to be selected for daytime schedules order more than 89, for a week - no more than 21), an average can be used without restrictions
Х the longer the average, the lower the sensitivity
Х average very small order gives many false alarms
Х the average very large order always late
Х when sideways apply the middle with a larger than usual order
Х Simple Moving average - MA):
MA = (total of the prices for a period of time) / Order average
the Main drawback of the MA is that it responds to one change course twice when receiving the values and disposal of calculation.
Weighted moving average (Weighted Moving Average - WMA):
WMA = (Sum of the products of prices and weights) / (Sum of weights)
Exponential moving averages (Exponentially Moving Average - EMA):
EMA(t) = EMA(t - 1) + (K x [Price(t) - EMA(t - 1)]
where t - the current time,
t - 1 - previous point in time,
K = 2 / (n + 1),
n - period average.
the Main dignity EMA is that it includes all the prices of the previous period, and not just the segment you specified during installation period. The later values given more weight.
|Featured orders average|
||8, 13, 21|
|1 but day
||8, 13, 21, 55, 89|
||8, 34, 55, 89, 144|
||8, 34, 55, 89, 144|
|a minimum of 15 minutes
||34, 55, 144|
the General rules of analysis:
Х find the point of intersection of Central and schedule of rates
Х find point, the following beyond the maximum or minimum average
Х find points of the greatest divergence of Central and schedule of rates
Х follow the direction of motion of the medium
Moving averages work well on a trending market and very bad on безтрендовом (flat), because the delay of moving averages will generate false signals.
Channels changes in prices
Channel prices (Price Channel Upper - PCU)
the Upper boundary: U = [ 1 + u / 100 ] x SMA (P, n);
lower bound: L = [ 1 - d / 100 ] x SMA (P, n), where
U - upper stripe price channel,
L - low bandwidth prices,
u - % above the upper band of the average,
d - % deviation lower band of the average,
SMA (P, n) - moving average.
With the right choice of parameters channel will correspond to the equilibrium state, the market, and all outputs rates beyond it must be accompanied by returning it back. About 5% of the price should be outside of the lines, 95% on the inside.
the Band of Bollinger Band - BB). Line CENTURIES built as a band around the middle, but bandwidth is proportional to the RMS deviation of the moving average for the analyzed period of time.
the Decision on the basis of the analysis of CENTURIES is taken when the price or rises above the upper resistance line CENTURIES, or falls below the lower line support CENTURIES. If we expect the price to fluctuate between these two lines, reliable signals on the purchase/sale on the basis of the analysis of CENTURIES not served. The decision to open a position is taken only when the price chart crosses the line CENTURIES to return to normal.
Sometimes going beyond the border of the CENTURIES means "fake breakdown", i.e. when prices only tried a new level and immediately returned. In this case, you have the opportunity to work against the trend, but carefully evaluate " is it true breakdown was "false." A good proof in such cases is the indicator of that when the fake breakdown should drop sharply.
Additional signals lines CENTURIES. Convergence CENTURIES occurs when the market calms down and it is not visible to significant fluctuations. Consolidation is to continue the current or the emergence of a new trend. Divergence CENTURIES observed when increasing the current trend or the beginning of the new. The discrepancy with increased volumes is a good confirmation of the trend. The average is a good level of support in a bull market and a good resistance level on the bear market.
MACD-histogram (the method of convergence-divergence)
From the exponential moving average with a smaller period (12) subtracted exponential moving average with a long period (26), and the results once again are smoothed by the EMA to eliminate random fluctuations:
MACD = EMA(9) [A], where
A = EMA(12) [i] - EMA(26) [i];
i - price.
the Best results MACD-histogram shows when assessing the periods of time from a day and more. Periods less than an hour give a lot of false signals.
the Signals of MACD-histogram:
Х the values for the maximum or minimum MACD is too early signal of warning. You need at least two additional signals
Х MACD crossing with a given boundary - it's time to make a decision
Х MACD crossing with the middle ("0" on the time axis) - could be late. You need at least two additional signals.
Х a Bullish divergence / bearish convergence strongest signal.
||the bearish convergence|
|signal, either a reversal of a bullish trend, or about its time attenuation
||signal, either a reversal of the bearish trend, or about its time attenuation|
If the price remains intact and the MACD goes to the middle, with a very large and is likely to continue previous trend.
Linear MACD is comprised of two lines, one of which smoothed value And (see MACD-histogram), and the other simply A.
linear Signals of MACD:
Х the values for the maximum or minimum faster line - warning to the transaction
Х if the faster line crosses the slow down - game down
Х if the faster line crosses the slow upward - up game
Х crossing lines away zero indicate that the market has turned in opposite to the previous trend. If crossing happened near zero, it indicates a possible flat.
Х the intersection of the lines with the calculated boundaries of values - too late signal.
More important to buy signals received at the values of the MACD is below zero, and sell signals - values above zero.
Build and line analysis RTR (Parabolic Time Price System)
we have Developed and described Welles ”илдером in 1976 The original title was "stop and reverse" ("stop and revers" - SAR).
the Main task of PTP - show the underlying trend and determine the moment of closing of open positions in the period of reversal. The closing price is determined daily by the formula:
Stop(Tomorrow) = Stop(Today) + AF x [ EP(Today) - Stop(Today)], where
Stop(Today) - is the current closing price;
Stop(Tomorrow) - the closing price of tomorrow;
EP(Today) - an extreme level of trades for the current day;
AF - factor averaging, the first day is usually taken equal to 0.02, is then calculated by the formula:
AF = 0,20 + n x 0,02, where n - number of new vertices (lowlands).
Classic entry signal - the intersection of the price chart line PTP any reversal in the trend or a temporary stabilization.
Х the direction of movement of PTP coincides with the direction of the trend. If RTR moves up, the trend is bullish and Vice versa
Х if the chart prices are highly deviated from PTP, then perhaps their convergence
Х in the Mature period of life line PTP it goes along the graphics rates - serves, as a rule, the right signals, in old age, these graphics converge - false signals
the Indicator "directional changes" (Directional Movement - +/-DM)
Designed ”илдером in development of the indicator PTP and performs two roles:
Х identifies the long-term tendency of the market
Х shows the degree of orientation of a specific market
the Indicator is constructed in the form of two взаимопротивоположных lines:
Х the first is in the direction of price dynamics (line 1, +DM)
Х the second - in the opposite (line 2, -DM)
the more deviation lines from each other, the stronger was in force at that time trend. Close intertwining of these two lines is insignificant fluctuations of the exchange rate, about flat.
the Formula of calculation:
+DM = (High - High1) / (High - Low)+(+DM) -1
-DM = (Low1 - Low) / (High - Low)+(DM) -1
Х the intersection of the lines of extremum or spread lines on highminimum conclusions for classical analysis
Х the intersection of the lines 1 and 2 preceded by strong fluctuations in rates when there is a new trend or strengthening of existing, very strong signal
Х if line 1 line 2, the trend is bullish and Vice versa
Х if the lines diverge, then speaker of the trend increases, and Vice versa
the Basic rules of the analysis:
Х buy and hold until a +DM above-DM
Х sell and hold until-DM above + DM
average directional index (ADX)
is Calculated as the absolute modulo the difference between the lines +/-DM, therefore, the greater the discrepancy lines +/-DM, the larger the value of ADX.
the Rules of using the ADX indicator
||the Market trend
||in the direction of trends|
||when other signals are especially important oscillator signals|
sharing regulations indicators +/-DM and ADX
||+DM . . . -DM
||the Conclusion of the transaction|
|in a zone of the minimal values
|formed a local minimum
||the birth of the new
|in the zone of maximum values
||to take profits|
at least part of the
|formed a local maximum
||the market is overheated
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