Trends and tendencies

9. Forex technical analysis

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The main provision of technical analysis acts as the assertion that the market develops directed: rates either rising or falling, or are in the horizontal range. Therefore, the identification of the trend (trend), or the prevailing price movement direction is the basis of technical analysis and the key to successful trading.

Kinds of trends
There are three types of trend:
Ascending (upward), or bullish trend (uptrend, upward, bullish trend) is characterized by the fact that the lower rates fluctuations on the market is increasing.

Trend and trends

Line, limiting such trend at the bottom and trough values is called the trend line.
With the increasing trend is important to have a border on the bottom, because in this case the bid price increase.
the Intersection of the trend line, which limits the rates below, can indicate that the General trend on the rise rates or weak, or even change direction. Trendline limiting the rates below, is called a line of support (support line - sup.).

the Descending (downward), or bearish trend (downtrend, downward, bearish trend) occurs when the maximum price fluctuations of the market decline.

Trend and trends

In the down-trend the trend line, which limits the rates above, is called a line of resistance line - res.).
When the existence of a bear market, we put on the lowering of prices, so it is important only restriction of prices from the top, because the lower the price, the better for the player. Intersection, or penetration resistance lines, warns about the possibility of weakening trend or even changing.

a Special interest channels (channel)when a clear trend exist simultaneously support and resistance lines. Support and resistance lines are not parallel lines. If this trend makes it possible to predict how the top and bottom levels.

Trend and trends

The upper point (peaks) graphics are at the level of prices that pressure from sellers on the currency market exceeds the pressure from buyers, of which the price will not grow, in other words, a level of resistance to higher prices. Similarly, the low points of the graph represent the level at which the pressure from sellers yields to pressure buyers and the price cannot fall, i.e. a level of price support. The longer schedule of rates remained within the trade channel, referring to its borders, the more reliable are these lines. An important role is played by trade volume, especially when talking about the events taking place near the lines of support and resistance. If the price of «bounces» of these lines at high-volume, reliability trend increases. The authenticity of the breakthrough checked by the rule of price change after the breakthrough of 3% of the previous closing price.
the Importance of support and resistance lines are beyond their original functions. Strong support line, with its breakthrough on the background of a large volume, most likely, will turn into a strong resistance line.
conversely, a strong resistance line, being broken, will turn into a solid line of support.

the Third type of trend - it is like no trend , i.e. horizontal (lateral trend, when prices fluctuate in horizontal range (sideways, flat market, trendless). For him, too, there are support and resistance lines, but there is no explicit prices move up or down.

Trend and trends

The trend line occurs as a natural result of observations, the trend. It is a straight line in the lower or on the upper points of the zigzags of the price chart. To draw a trendline, it is enough to have two points through which it is conducted, and one more point «to confirm » the trend. Within trend is supported by the direction and speed of movement (the slope of the graph) exchange. The trend remains in place until her breakthrough with a rapid movement of the prices up or down. However, even after confirmation of a breakthrough, it is likely to be followed by a period of consolidation. A sharp change in direction of the trend line, there is a relatively rare. In the absence of a consolidation, the longer it does not happen, the sharper is the subsequent turn. The trend line and roughly parallel to it a line drawn from the opposite side of the chart form a shopping channel. Both these lines are called boundaries or lines of the channel. Because the market is not moving in a straight line, and zigzags, the mutual position of the upper and lower points of these zigzags creates the trend of the market. Except directions trends are classified according to their duration, are classified as major or long-term, secondary or average duration and Maly (minor) or intermittent. Within the main trend may be as many secondary and small trends. The duration of each of them varies widely. According to the Dow theory is considered to be the main trend, established on the market for more than 1 year. The duration of the secondary trend can be calculated for months, and small - for weeks. Price of a foreign currency even under the most strong trends not moving constantly up or down. Traders keep track of the rotation direction of the movement) rates at particular points in its graphics.

There are two typical point of a possible reversal pattern marked on the chart as percentage from the previous move (percentage retracements):
1. According to Charles Dow reversal occurs after the price was down 1/3 (33%), 2/3 (50%) or 2/3 (66%) of the last rise up. The price reversal after 66% is considered a correction of the trend.
2. In accordance with ratios of Fibonacci reversal occurs in the points corresponding to 0.382 (38%), 0.5 (50%) and 0.618 (62%) of the previous upswing.

Technical analysis: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |

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