Fundamental factors influencing the FOREX market

2. Fundamental analysis

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Federal Reserve Bank (Fed): The U.S. Central Bank is regulated by three of the mechanism of monetary policy: open market operations open market operations, the discount rate (the discount rate and reserve requirements reserve requirements). The Board of governors of the Federal reserve system is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements. The Federal open market Committee is responsible for operations on the open market. Using these three tools, the fed affects the amount of money that Depository institutions hold at the Federal reserve Bank and, thus, changing the interest rate on short-term credits (the federal funds rate).

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal open market Committee: FOMC is responsible for decisions on monetary policy, including interest rate, what is being done to 8 times per year. At these meetings, the Committee considers the economic and financial condition, determines the monetary policy, and assesses the long-term goal of price stability and economic growth. The Committee of 12 participants consists of 7 members of the governing Council; the President of the Federal reserve Bank of new York; while the other four ranked on a one-year term at a time, each of the presidents of the 11 other Reserve banks. Claim for one place at Bank President Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; on the other Cleveland and Chicago; on the third - Atlanta, Sept. Louis and Dallas; the latter goes to the President of the Bank of Minneapolis, Kansas city and San Francisco. Not voting presidents of the reserve banks attend meetings of the Committee, participating in discussions and contribute to the development policy Committee. At the meeting, which was held on November 1, the Committee decided to raise the interest rate on short-term credits by 25 basis points to 4%. During the year, the FOMC raised rates by a quarter percent, at each meeting. The last session of this year will take place on 13 December. In 2006 are planned meeting: January 31, March 28, may 10, 28-30 June, August 8, September 20, October 24, 12 December.

the voting Members in 2005:
Х Alan Greenspan, member of the Board of governors of the fed Chairman;
Х Timothy F. Geithner, new York, Vice Chairman;
Х Susan Schmidt Bies, member of the Board of governors of the fed.
Х Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., member of the Board of governors of the fed.
Х Richard W. Fisher, Dallas;
Х Donald L. Kohn, a member of the Board of governors of the fed.
Х Michael H. Moskow, Chicago;
Х Mark W. Olson, a member of the Board of governors of the fed.
Х Anthony M. Santomero, Philadelphia;
Х Gary H. Stern, Minneapolis.

Striped members:
Х Jack Guynn, Atlanta;
Х Jeffrey M. Lacker, Richmond;
Х Sandra Pianalto, Cleveland;
Х Janet L. Yellen, San Francisco;
Х Christine M. Cumming, first Vice President, new York.

Fed Funds Rate: rate FED funds, it is obvious that most accurately reflects the direction of change of rates. This percentage, which Depository institutions pay each other for daily loans. FED announces about the changes in the rates of funds, when she wants to give clear signals to monetary policy. These ads usually have a large impact on all shares, bonds and the currency market.

Discount Rate: the interest rate that the FED requires commercial banks. Although this is more of a symbolic value, it changes also imply clear signals of certain policies. The discount rate is almost always less than the rate funds.

Treasury. The U.S. Treasury is responsible for servicing government debt, and the adoption of decisions on financing of the budget. Treasury says on the monetary policy, however, his statements on the dollar can have a strong impact on the currency. Key positions are:
Х John Snow, Secretary of the Treasury, appointed by the President j. Bush 3 February. 2003;
Х Robert M. Kimmitt, Assistant Secretary, holds the post of August 16, 2005;

the 30-year Treasury Bond: 30 year bonds, also known as long range. They compared to other bond they are more reliable, as provided by the U.S. government. This is the most important indicator of inflation expectations in the markets. Interest rates on 30-year bonds is higher than on more короткосрочным securities to compensate for the risk associated with the increase in the length of the period. Markets are more likely to use the number (the price), when talking about the levels bonds. As in all obligations, number 30 year Treasury obligations is inversely proportional to the price. There is no clear correlation between the long bond and the US dollar. But usually retain the following ratio price dropping bond (higher number) due to inflation worries can pin down the dollar. The rise can be a result of strong economic data. Depending on the stage of the economic cycle, strong economic data may have different effects on the dollar. If there is no threat of inflation of strong economic data may raise a dollar. But from time to time, when there is a threat of inflation (higher interest rates), strong data usually did harm to the dollar due to the sale of the bonds. Financial or political disorder in the markets of third world countries is a warm interest to American Treasury liabilities due to their safe nature, thus helping the dollar.

the 10-year Treasury Note: FX markets are usually compared with 10 summer tickets, comparing them with the number of analogues abroad, namely, to the Euro (German 10-year bund), yen (10-year JGB) and pound (10-year gilt). The presence of spread (the difference in numbers between the number of its 10-year U.S. Treasury and non-U.S. obligations to affect the exchange rate. A greater number of American Treasury bills usually benefits the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies.

3-month Eurodollar Deposits: the interest rate on 3-month us dollar deposits in banks outside the US. It serves as a valuable reference test for determining the difference in interest rates, helping to assess the rate of exchange. Take, for example, USD/JPY, big difference in interest rates in favor of евродоллара against евроиены - probably, USD/JPY rises. Sometimes, due to the influence of other factors, this attitude is not supported.

the Most important economic data that go in the USA:
Х reports from the labor force include two studies: a survey of 60,000 households, as a result of determining the level of unemployment, and survey data from the payroll in the non-agricultural sector 375 000 commercial organizations and state institutions, it is defined by the number of new jobs created in non-agricultural sector, the average length of the working week, and average hourly earnings.
Х GDP (gross domestic product) is a summary indicator of the state of the economy should be considered first of all indicators, acting on it, and which are its components (industrial production (Industrial Production), personal income and spending (Personal Income & Spending), construction costs (Construction Spending), etc). GDP published by the Bureau of Statistics Ministry of Trade of The USA (The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce) each quarter. Statistics for the previous quarter is published on the 3rd or 4th week of the current month at 8:30 EST (new York), then you should review. The data moves in such sequence: preliminary (GDP advance) - revised (GDP provisional (revised)) - final (GDP final).
Х CPI (comsumer price index) determines the change in the level of retail prices for goods and services included in the fixed consumer basket. In the УbasketФ of 44.1% commodities and 55.9% services. The main indicator of inflation in the country. The consumer price index is analyzed together with the index of producer prices (PPI). If the economy develops in normal conditions, the growth of indicators of CPI and PPI can lead to higher interest rates in the country. This, in turn, leads to us dollar rate growth, as it increases the attractiveness of investing in a currency with a higher interest rate. The indicator is influenced by such indicators as the volume of money supply (M2 aggregate) and producer prices and import prices (which are counted in the calculation of the index). The indicator is published by the Bureau to incorporate employment U.S. Department of labor, The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor) in the middle of each month (Tuesday or Thursday) shortly after the release of index PPI at 08:30 EST (new York).
Х PPI (Producer Price Index) shows, how many producers receive for wholesale sales of its products. The index includes rates on the three types of goods: raw materials, semi-finished products and final products. Is another way to determine the level of inflation in the country (in addition to the CPI). Is published on the second full week of each month and reflects the previous month.
Х Nonfarm payrolls determines the number of new jobs created in non-agricultural sectors of the economy for the month. The data are adjusted to reflect seasonal fluctuations and changes in the baselines. Published by the Bureau to incorporate employment U.S. Department of labor, The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor) on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 EST (new York).
Х PPI (Producer Index reflects the dynamics of changes of the prices on which domestic producers sell their products at the wholesale level of implementation. The report is based on the monthly comparison price 3 500 names of production factors which are calculated in proportion to their contribution to GDP. PPI was normalized to 100 at the end of 1982. A report published by the Bureau to incorporate employment Department of labor, usually around the 11th of each month at 08:30 EST (new York).
Х NAPM index - a measure of the health of the manufacturing sector, or more widespread throughout the economy, calculated on the basis of observations for managers on supply and analysis of data on new orders, production, employment, supply and inventory examined in decreasing order of importance. This index is based on a survey of more than 250 companies within twenty one industry, covering all 50 States. The data moves in first business day of the month at 10:00 EST (new York) and reflects the previous month's data. A value of more than 50 % indicates that manufacturing is growing, while a value below 50 % means fall. NAPM index, as they think, is an early indicator of inflationary pressures.
Х CCI (Consumer Confidence Index) reflects consumers ' willingness to spend their income. The index is computed from the observation of the 5 000 households, non-representative sample of the population. High consumer ability can soften the recession and strengthen its restoration. Published every last Tuesday of the month at 10:30 EST (new York).
Х Productivity report labour productivity) shows, how many products produced by one worker. Many economists believe that productivity growth allows the economy to grow, not giving rise to inflation in contrast to the increase in wages. The report is published 7 number (or the nearest working day in January, April, July and October at 8:30 EST (new York).
Х ECI (Employment Cost Index) is used to track the level of inflation. Determines the change in the cost of wages, profits and premiums for certain groups of employees. The reason why you use this indicator to determine the level of inflation is simple: wage increases very soon leads to increase in prices (i.e. inflation). In conjunction with the report on labor productivity ECI can reveal whether a reasonable salary increases. The report is published on the last working day of January, April, July and October at 8:30 EST (new York).
Х Beige Book the unofficial name of the report, the fed (the official name - "Summary of comments on the current economic situation in the Federal reserve districts"). Represents the digest of reports of the 12 reserve banks in the United States, characterizing the sphere of industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labour market and housing market. Is the indicator of further actions of the FOMC. Published 8 times a year on Wednesday two weeks before the meeting of the Federal open market Committee. The last report was published on 30 November at 14:15 EST (new York).

the Effect of cross-rates

the dollar Price of one currency against sometimes pushed by another pair of currency (exchange rate), which may not include the dollar. For example, the sharp rise of the yen against the Euro falling EUR/JPY) may result in a General decline in the Euro, including the fall of EUR/USD.

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