The US economic indicators

5. Fundamental analysis

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indicators USA | indicators UK

Atlanta Fed index
The index of business activity of the Federal reserve Bank of Atlanta.
results of a survey of manufacturers in Atlanta about their attitude towards current economic situation. The figures below "0" are the indicator of a slowing economy. Its value is published after the 10th of each month at 09:00 EST (new York). This index has limited market influence, as published after the indicator of business activity at the national level (NAPM index). A value increase of this index is a positive factor for the us dollar growth rate.
Average hourly earnings
the median hourly wage.
is Expressed as an absolute value and as an index relative to the previous review period. Is an indicator of potential inflation related to labor cost growth. Has significant market influence. In the expectation of major interest rates increase its value can lead to us dollar rate growth. Published on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Nonfarm payrolls".
Average workweek
Average working week.
The indicator shows the average length of the working week within a month. Published on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Nonfarm payrolls". The market is almost not affected. Used for long-term analysis of employment situation in the country. He is "good" indication of the state of the labour market at different stages of the economic cycle. He is considered one of the defining indicators for indicators such as "Industrial production" (Industrial production) and "Personal income" (Personal income), whose values are published later.
Beige book
Economic survey of the Federal reserve system of the USA "Beige book".
Is twelve Federal reserve banks the USA. The review covers the sphere of industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labour market and housing market. Has limited market influence. When rumours appear on the market about a possible change in interest rates, attention is drawn on the part of the review deals with the state of wages and prices. This review is useful to confirm the already established trend in the economy. Its value is published 8 times a year, on Wednesday, two weeks before the next meeting of the open market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal reserve system of the USA at 14:00 EST (new York).
Building permits
construction Permit.
the Indicator shows the number of permits for construction of new houses. Indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates, as the construction is necessary to take Bank loans. This data, due to particularities of the real estate market is subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to personal income. Therefore, an increase in construction volumes characterizes improvement and healthy development of economy. Has limited market influence. Value growth has positive influence on the currency rate. Its value is published on the third week of each month at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Housing starts".
Business inventories
Reserves of manufactured goods, components and semi-finished products in warehouses.
There is the following pattern: an increase within a few months may indicate stagnation in the economy. The influence of this indicator on the market is limited. However, a steady trend in its dynamics have significant market influence. A value increase of this index has a negative impact on the dollar rate. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (new York).
Capacity utilisation
Capacity utilization.
Defines the degree of use of the productive potential of the economy. The level of 85% indicates a good balance between economic growth and inflation. Exceeding this level causes inflation processes in the economy. Has limited market influence. The growth of this index leads to the growth rate of the national currency. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 09:15 EST (new York) together with the indicator "Industrial production" (Industrial production).
Chicago PMI index
Index of business activity of the management Association of Chicago.
results of a survey of purchasing managers in the sphere of industry of Chicago. This index touches production orders, prices of manufactured products and commodity stocks in warehouses. The figures below "45-50" are the indicator of a slowing economy. Watching him carefully, as it is published shortly before the index of business activity of the National Association of Managers (NAPM). This index has significant market influence, as it can give an idea about what an indicator of business activity at the national level (NAPM). A value increase of this index leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published on the last business day of each month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Construction spending
Construction costs.
the Indicator is expressed as an index relative to the previous review period as the absolute value of the cost base. Indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates, as the construction is necessary to take Bank loans. This data, due to particularities of the real estate market is subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to personal income. Therefore, an increase in construction volumes characterizes improvement and healthy development of economy. Has limited market influence. Value growth has positive influence on the currency rate. Its value is published, as a rule, the first business day of each month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Consumer confidence
Index of trust of consumers.
This review is an attempt to measure the optimism of consumers. The index is calculated since 1967. First, it was equal to "100". Has limited market influence, as it may not reflect the real state of the economy. However, it is traditionally used to predict trends in employment and the General state of the economy. A value increase of this index is a positive factor for national economy and leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published after the 20th of every month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Consumer credit
Consumer credit.
Reflects the volume of use by the U.S. credit through credit cards, personal loans and hire purchase. Is an indicator of consumer demand. A high value indicates that consumers are not afraid "borrow" to meet their material needs. However, the figures are often reviewed and are subject to significant seasonal fluctuations. For example, the amount of consumer credit is growing in the run-up to Christmas and the New year. Has limited market influence. A value increase of this index is a positive factor for national economy and leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published around the 7th of each month at 15:00 EST (new York).
Consumer price index (CPI)
the consumer price Index.
Determines the change in the level of retail prices "trash" goods and services. The consumer price index is considered more reliable, if it does not include food and energy industries. When calculating the index take into account the prices for imported goods and services. The consumer price index is the main indicator of inflation in the country. This index is analyzed together with the measure for "PPI" (PPI). If the economy develops in normal conditions, the growth of indicators of CPI and PPI can lead to higher interest rates in the country. This, in turn, leads to us dollar rate growth, as it increases the attractiveness of investing in a currency with a higher interest rate. Its value is published in the middle of each month (soon after the release of the index PPI) at 08:30 EST (new York).
Current account (Balance of payments)
the balance of Payments.
Represents the ratio between the amount of payments received from abroad and the amount of payments that go abroad. If arriving in the country exceed payments owed to other countries and international organizations, the balance of payments is active (surplus)or the opposite - it is passive (negative balance). The surplus (or decrease in the deficit balance) is a favorable factor for the growth rate of the national currency. Has limited market influence. Its value is published every quarter in the middle of the publication month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Durable goods orders
durable goods Orders.
To durable goods are the goods with a lifetime of more than three years. These include: automobiles, furniture and other In order to highlight the variability inherent in the military and transport orders from this indicator distinguish figures which do not include orders for the defense industry (Durable goods orders excluding defence) and transfer orders (Durable goods orders excluding transportation). This indicator is important for the market, because it gives an idea about the consumer confidence of the current economic situation. Since durable goods are quite expensive, the increase in the number of orders for them shows the willingness of consumers to spend their own money. Thus, the growth of this indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to the growth rate of the national currency. Its value is published on the fourth week of each month at 08:30 EST (new York).
Employment cost index
Index of labor cost.
It includes wages and unemployment benefits. It can serve as an indicator of the presence of inflation processes in the economy of the country. The employment cost index is one of the indicators carefully followed by the Federal reserve while conducting its monetary policy (and that's saying a lot). In the expectation of major interest rates increase its value of this index leads to us dollar rate growth. Used for medium - and long-term forecasts. Its value is published every quarter, after the 20th of the publication month at 08:30 EST (new York).
Existing home sales
Number of sold houses built before.
Shows the number of houses sold on the secondary property market during the year. It can give an idea about the optimism of consumers (consumer confidence) and their ability to buy expensive things. This data, due to particularities of the real estate market is subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to personal income. Therefore, an increase in construction volumes characterizes improvement and healthy development of economy. Has limited market influence. Value growth has positive influence on the currency rate. Its value is published every month after the 20th of the month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Export prices
export Prices.
Index reflects the change in prices of exports for the month. Is an indicator of inflation. Has limited market influence. In the expectation of major interest rates increase, the value of this index leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published every month around the 10th at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Import prices".
Factory orders
Production orders.
Production orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and short-term use. To goods non-durable include food, clothing, light industry goods and goods, calculated on the operation of durable goods. The durable goods are the goods with a lifetime of more than three years. These include: automobiles, furniture and other Indicator "Production orders" has limited market influence. Pay special attention to the trends of its development. A value increase of this index is a positive factor for national economy and leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published on the first of each month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Federal budget
State budget.
Which characterizes the ratio between the incomes of the state and its expenditures. When exceeding the state revenues and expenditures is formed surplus. In excess of government spending over its income to budget deficit). This index has little impact on the market. Usually it is used for long-term analysis of the economy. Budget deficit is seen in the context of other indicators: the producer price index (PPI), consumer price index (CPI), monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3), and other Published on around the 20th of every month at 14:00 EST (new York).
GDP - Gross domestic product
Gross domestic product (GDP).
Is the key indicator that reflects the state of the national economy. According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP can be represented as follows: GDP = C + I + S + E - M, where C is consumption, I - investment, S - state spending, E - exports, M is imports. GDP is expressed as an index relative to the previous review period, and as the absolute value of the sum of prices for goods and services produced. Has significant market influence. GDP growth leads to the growth rate of the national currency.
GDP advance
Gross domestic product (GDP) - a preliminary value.
This indicator is the first step three levels of GDP data, which are published every quarter. They are published in the following sequence: advance - provisional (revised) - final. Its value is published every quarter, after the 20th of the publication month at 08:30 EST (new York).
GDP deflator
the GDP Deflator.
Is the ratio of the current value of GDP to its reference value. Reflects the size of the inflation component in the GDP value. Published simultaneously with the GDP. Has significant market influence. In the expectation of major interest rates increase its value of this index leads to us dollar rate growth.
GDP final
Gross domestic product (GDP) - the final value.
This update "revised values" GDP (provisional). Often the differences between them are minimal. Therefore, these figures are not surprising the market. Its value is published in the month after the publication of "provisional GDP" after the 20th of the month at 08:30 EST (new York).
GDP provisional (revised)
Gross domestic product (GDP) - the revised value.
This is an updated review "preliminary value" GDP (advance). Published in the month after the publication of "GDP advance" after the 20th of the month at 08:30 EST (new York).
Help-wanted index
Index of the number of required employees.
Describes the amount of published advertisements in Newspapers on hiring employees. 1987 is the base, then its value was equal to "100". During analysis of use "moving average" (moving average). If the moving average shows a trend change in the index over several months, it could be a sign of change in the labour market. Also, the index can give an idea about possible changes of the economic situation in different regions of the country. Practically does not influence the market. Its limited impact, taking into account only a limited number of major regional Newspapers. Its value is usually published on the last Thursday of each month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Housing starts
new home Construction.
the Indicator shows the number of new homes on which construction has already begun. He is very sensitive to changes in interest rates in the country, as the construction is necessary to take Bank loans. This data, due to particularities of the real estate market is subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to personal income. Therefore an increase in construction volumes characterizes improvement and healthy development of economy. Has limited market influence. Value growth has positive influence on the currency rate. Its value is published on the third week of each month at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Building permits".
Humphrey-Hawkins testimony
This is the speech of the head of the US Federal reserve system (Federal Reserve) (now it is Alan Greenspan) for the two banking committees of the Congress.
This performance takes place twice a year: in winter and summer. The two houses of Congress (The Senate and House) are interchanged on whose Committee is once again listening to the speech first. The report sheds light on the new plans and goals of the Federal reserve system in conducting monetary policy. Watching him carefully all market participants are trying to find a hint of possible change in fed interest rates. Report has a significant impact on the market. This is one of the most important events for the financial market.
Import prices
import Prices.
The index reflects the change in import prices over the month. Is an indicator of inflation. Because when calculating the consumer price index (CPI) take into account the prices for imported goods and services, this value characterizes the contribution of import prices to the overall picture of changes in retail prices for "trash" goods and services. Has limited market influence. In the expectation of major interest rates increase, the value of this index leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published every month around the 10th at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Export prices".
Industrial production
Industrial production.
Is one of the main indicators reflecting the state of the national economy. The index shows the change in the volume of industrial output and communal services in the country. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 09:15 EST (new York). Has significant market influence. The growth of this index leads to the growth rate of the national currency.
International trade (Trade balance)
the Trade balance.
Represents the ratio between the prices of goods exported outside the state, and the prices of goods imported into the territory of that state. I.e. the difference between exports and imports. If the sum of the prices of exported goods exceeds the sum of the prices of imported, the trade balance is active (surplus)if imports exceed exports is negative). The surplus (or decrease in the deficit balance) is a favorable factor for the growth rate of the national currency. Has significant market influence. Its value is published on the third week of each month (usually Thursday) at 08:30 EST (new York).
Jobless claims (Initial claims)
jobless claims.
this Shows the weekly change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Published weekly on Thursdays at 08:30 EST (new York). These figures do not always reflect the real picture of events. They are sometimes distorted by short-term factors, such as Federal or local holidays. This indicator can give an idea about how the next time will record "Nonfarm payrolls". For example, if during the month, the value of the indicator "Jobless claims" decreases consistently, there is a high probability that the value of the index "Nonfarm payrolls" will be great. Has limited market influence. Reducing the number of jobless claims is a positive factor for the us dollar growth rate.
Leading indicators index
Index of leading indicators.
He is the volume weighted index of indicators such as: "production orders", "the number of applications for unemployment benefits", "monetary aggregates M", "the average working week", "permission for the construction of real estate", prices for the main action, "durable goods orders", "consumer confidence index". It is believed that he characterizes the development of the economy over the next 6 months. There is also a rule of thumb is that the output of the value of the indicator in the negative for three consecutive months is an indicator of the slowdown in the development of the economy of the country. Has limited market influence. Its limited impact due to the fact that the value of the index goes through a month after the reporting period, when almost all the main indicators have already been published. A value increase of this index leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published, as a rule, in the first days of each month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Michigan consumer sentiment index
Index of mood of consumers of the University of Michigan.
This index represents the results of a consumer survey on the subject of confidence in the current economic situation. The survey is conducted by employees of the Michigan University, USA. The report is published twice a month: on the second week (usually Friday) on around the 15th of the month (provisional), and two weeks later (final). Published at 10:00 EST (new York). This indicator is nothing other than a reflection of the willingness of consumers to spend their money. Has limited market influence. A value increase of this index leads to us dollar rate growth.
Money supply (M1, M2, M3)
the Monetary aggregates "M".
They are indicators of the money supply. M1 takes into account the most liquid resources: currency, funds on the accounts "on demand", traveler's checks. M2 includes M1 and time deposits (up to $100 000) and other highly liquid savings. M3 includes M2 and term deposits of large sizes. Indicators of M1, M2, and M3 are published weekly on Thursdays at 16:30 EST (new York) and are very informative. They show the weekly change in money supply. The most significant of them is the M2. The market is almost not affected.
NAPM index (National Association of Purchasing Managers' index)
Index of business activity of the National Association of Managers.
results of a survey of purchasing managers in the sphere of industry. This index is used to evaluate changes in the field of new production orders, the volume of industrial production, employment, inventories and supplier efficiency. The figures below "45-50" are the indicator of a slowing economy. Often this index's value is influenced by emotion factors, rather than the actual state of Affairs. When calculating the index of California is not included. Since the volume of industrial production is not automatically a source of consumer demand, this indicator is approached with caution. Its value is published on the first business day of each month at 10:00 EST (new York). Has limited market influence. A value increase of this index leads to us dollar rate growth.
NAPM services index (National Association of Purchasing Managers' services index)
Index of business activity of the National Association of Managers in the sphere of services.
He represents the results of a survey of managers in the services to evaluate the changes in this industry. The figures below "45-50" are the indicator of a slowing economy. Often this index's value is influenced by emotion factors, rather than the actual state of Affairs. Consumer services process tends to change with a relatively constant rate, so the sharp changes in values of this indicator are influenced by psychological factors. Therefore, when analyzing an index on this pay special attention. Its value is published on the first of each month at 10:00 EST (new York), a day after the publication of the index of the National Association of Managers in industry (NAPM index). Has limited market influence. A value increase of this index is a positive factor for the us dollar growth rate.
New home sales
the Digit indicates the number of sold or offered for sale, houses designed for one family, per year.
This number tends to increase when the interest rate on loans related to the basic interest rates in the country. This data, due to particularities of the real estate market is subject to seasonal fluctuations. Therefore, when analyzing the record "New home sales" using "moving average" (moving average). Has limited market influence. Value growth has positive influence on the currency rate. Its value is published on the first of each month at 10:00 EST (new York).
Nonfarm payrolls
Number of new jobs created in non-agricultural sectors of the economy for the month.
Payroll is the payroll, according to which employees receive their salaries. This is a very strong indicator that reflects the change in the level of employment in the country. The growth of this indicator characterizes the increase in employment and leads to us dollar rate growth. Its called "the indicator that moves markets". There is an empirical rule that the increase of its value at 200 000 per month is equivalent to the GDP increase by 3.0%. Published on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (new York).
Personal income
Personal income.
Index includes wages of workers and employees, rental income, dividends, income from Bank interest, social security payments and other consider It together with the indicator "Personal spending". Has limited market influence. The change of this index characterizes the state of the purchasing power of the population. The growth of the value of the normal level of spending can lead to growth of the volume of retail sales, which is a positive factor for national economy and leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published after the 20th of each month at 08:30 EST (new York).
Personal spending (consumption)
Personal expenses.
Index reflects the change in spending for personal needs. Has limited market influence. Its value is published after the 20th of each month at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Personal income". The index includes three components: expenditures on the purchase of durable goods, non-durable and services. On the consumption of goods non-durables index provides an overview "Retail sales" (Retail sales). The process of consumption of services, in turn, varies relatively constant speed, so the value of this index is usually predictable. Thus, the only significant deviation of this index from the forecast values can affect the rate of the national currency. The growth in value is a positive factor for national economy and leads to us dollar rate growth.
Philadelphia Fed index
Index of business activity of the Federal reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
results of a survey of manufacturers in the Philadelphia for their attitude towards current economic situation. The figures below "0" are the indicator of a slowing economy. Its value is published on the third Thursday of each month at 10:00 EST (new York). Has limited market influence. Watching him carefully, as this index is published before the index "NAPM", and can give an idea about what an indicator of business activity at the national level. Index's value increase leads to us dollar rate growth.
Producer price index (PPI)
Index of industrial prices.
Determines the change in the level of prices on the "trash" goods produced in the industry. Until 1978, it was called "Wholesale price index" (wholesale price Index). This index consists of two parts: the price of the entrance (semi-finished products, components etc) and prices of output production (finished products). The price of the output includes the cost of labour and gives an idea about the inflation related to changes in the value of the labour force. The index of industrial prices is considered more reliable, if it does not include food and energy industries. When calculating the index does not take into account the prices for imported goods and services. Has significant market influence. In the expectation of major interest rates increase its value of this index leads to us dollar rate growth. Published every month, as a rule, a week after the release of "Nonfarm payrolls", at 08:30 EST (new York).
Productivity
Productivity.
Index shows the change in volume of output volumes per worker. Productivity is a very important indicator for economy analysis. Has significant market influence. However, it must be watching very closely, as it from time to time may be misleading. For example, reducing the number of production employees at the time of stagnation in the economy leads to increase of productivity. This may also happen as a result of strikes. A value increase of this index is a positive factor for national economy and leads to us dollar rate growth. Its value is published every quarter, before the 10th of the publication month at 08:30 EST (new York).
Real earnings (Real average weekly earnings)
Average salary for a week.
the Index is calculated taking into account inflation and cleared from inflation). To exclude the effect of inflation calculation is made relative to a base year, 1982. Expressed as absolute value and as an index relative to the previous review period. It can serve as an indicator of inflationary pressures associated with the increased cost of labor. Has limited market influence. In the expectation of major interest rates increase its value can lead to us dollar rate growth. It is published usually in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "CPI" (consumer price Index).
Redbook
weekly review of retail sales "Рэдбук".
results of a study of retail sales of large supermarkets. Published weekly on Tuesdays at 10:30 EST (new York). The first review of the month (on the first Tuesday of the month) compares the first week of the current month with the first week of the previous month, the second review compares the first two weeks of the current month with the first two weeks of the previous month etc. Thus, the full picture of the review is formed only at the moment of publication of the last month (on the last Tuesday). Practically does not influence the market. This is because the values are considerably dispersed (variability) and the fact that the survey there is a limited number of shops.
Retail sales
Retail sales.
The index shows the change in volume of sales in the retail trade. Measures the level of consumer spending and demand. This indicator is divided into "sale hire" and "the sale of all of the rest". As the number of sold cars is very volatile, the most accurate data is in the part of the indicator, which does not include "sale hire". Growth in retail sales is a positive factor for national economy and leads to the growth rate of the national currency. Published in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (new York). Has limited market influence (mainly in the medium and long term).
Unemployment rate
unemployment.
this Shows the percentage of the number of unemployed to the total number of working population. The indicator "Nonfarm payrolls". Has significant market influence. Usually the analysis of unemployment together with literature, reflecting the value of the "Nonfarm payrolls". For example, the growth "Nonfarm payrolls" with the growth of unemployment indicates an increase in unemployment in the agricultural sectors of the economy, etc. In the expectation of major interest rates decrease its value leads to us dollar rate growth. Published on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Nonfarm payrolls".
Unit labor cost
production Cost per unit.
Index characterizes the expenses related to the unit production. It is an important indicator of the efficiency of the economy. Has significant market influence. He is a good indicator of the development of inflationary processes associated with wage growth. Usually the analysis of this index is presented in context with numbers reflecting the value of "Productivity" (labor Productivity). The growth in unit labour cost in line with rising productivity can lead to the need to increase basic interest rates, which is a positive factor for the us dollar growth rate. Its value is published every quarter, before the 10th of the publication month at 08:30 EST (new York) at once with the "Productivity".
Wholesale inventories
Commodity stocks in warehouses of wholesale trade.
Index characterizes the relationship between wholesalers and retailers. Has limited market influence, but it gives an idea of the trends in these sectors, which can be projected on the economy as a whole. "Overstock" warehouses may indicate the stagnation of the economy. A steady tendency in the dynamics has a great impact on the market. A value increase of this index has a negative impact on the dollar rate. Published on around the 10th of each month at 10:00 EST (new York).

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