Trader offered two options:
1. With a 100 % chance to win US $ 85,000;
2. With an 85% probability to win US $ 100,000 and 15% chance of not winning anything.
the Objective yield the same in both cases - US $ 85,000. However, the vast majority of people prefer the first option. The first conclusion - when a person wins, it doesn't take risks. In the second case, the trader also offered two options:
1. With a 100% chance to lose US $ 85,000;
2. With an 85% probability of losing 100 000 USD and 15% chance of not losing anything.
Here the objective yield the same in both cases - US $ 85,000. However, the vast majority of people prefer the second option. The second conclusion - when a man loses, he is inclined to take risks. We are afraid to take the risk when there is no danger, but run the risk, and hope, when the danger is high. The market usually occurs the following: as a result of the purchase of a certain product at some point in time of the first party (the buyer) received profit at $ 85,000. This party does not risk further and takes profit, making the sale of this product to a third party. Chance to earn the third party $ 15,000 is 85%, and the probability of losing - 15 %; the other party to the transaction (seller) at the same moment, a loss of 85,000 dollars. However, this party does not close the position and hopes in the best case stand Pat; in the future, the price, as expected, grew up and provided to a third party revenue of 15 000 dollars, while the seller is similar loss;
there is, however, another scenario is the third person can lose $ 85,000, according to 15 per cent probability. However in the reality of the loss of this third person is significantly smaller due to the staging of a reasonable stop-loss orders.
Who this third person? As a rule, is a professional player or a trader. He uses fear выигрывающего person lose income and hope losing money wagering. A professional in the last moment as if wedged between the first and second and with a very high probability of success (85%) takes its share, putting on the line a relatively small amount.
Our weaknesses are rich food for professional traders.
All novice traders often won and little and rarely lost much. In the end, total losses exceeded the total profit. The main task of psychoanalysis actions of the trader is to identify mental deficiencies, which may lead to losses, and their correction. How to check the trader the ability to conduct a successful trade?
1. Before opening a position all equal. Some are so sure he was right, that they are ready to defend their opinion with "foaming at the mouth", others - "quiet" traders. They silently listen to the opinions of others, but do everything differently. Still others are ready to discuss everything you want and conduct conversations 24 hours a day. On results of trade, the difference in the behavior has no effect. Each of them is equally dangerous when dealing with "live" money.
2. After some time (5-10 minutes for the short game or the next day to long-term positions) after opening the position, it usually becomes clear, rightly or wrongly the transaction was made. After a short time, can be defined as a trader reacts with positive and negative emotions - aggressively or passively.
the Active reaction of the trader is sharp movements and mobility opinions about the open position. Passive response is manifested in prolonged inaction trader, a kind of замирании, whatever happens. The result of complete this table will be the definition of the first component of the psycho trader - active or passive type. To explicitly passive types can recommend a compulsory preparation of plans for opening, closing and maintenance of position, otherwise they because of their contemplation will miss not only good moments to open, and to close the position.
Among passive traders are typical cases of averaging. Similarly, for a different reason, it is recommended to follow the financial plan and aggressive traders. The last type of traders inclined to hasty, rash actions than can be very harmful. Active traders tend to "rolling". Before the opening and closing of positions make sure you know what data or conclusions committed the transaction. If the objective reasons and an intelligible answer you get, you instinctively or intuitively oriented trader. For instinctive trader reference is typical on physical causes transaction references to previous experience and behavior of the market. Intuitively oriented trader anything intelligible can say no, in addition to links to their misgivings. If the fact of conclusion of the transaction will be logically explained, before trader intellectual type. A drawback of this type: excessive rationality often serving as cover for the fear of the unknown market, fear before the conclusion of the transaction.
Instinct in the trader is manifest on the material level. Any initial action trader is regarded as his desire to meet a variety of material interests. If, having performed some action (buy or sell), the trader has suffered a loss, it's almost the same thing when in the process of obtaining food he ran into insurmountable obstacle and lost or left eye, or the right leg. Any normal person will recede and will try in this place one more not to go. If a trader has earned, but still easy enough, this equates to detect them good forest land, which is found in many living game. The trader will often look at these "good grounds". It seems so original prototype of the trend of the market behaviour, when strong unidirectional dynamics of the price itself supports.
the Intellect of the trader is manifested in its ability to logically comprehend the situation with him and with the surrounding reality and take on this basis the most simple and proper. If the instinct acts unconsciously, using generic memory (it's the teachers and basic rules), the intellect tries to comprehend these tips and rules in accordance with its own worldview and the changed external conditions. This is exactly intelligence to help find a way out of the deadlock, which can have just following the old rules.
Intuition is the ability of man to penetrate into the essence of things not by reasoning or logic thinking, and by instant, a deep insight. It is the ability of the trader to see the market not by the mind and the heart". But, even with highly developed intuition, it is impossible to act in the market, using only her. It's the same like walking on the edge of the cliff blindfolded. At least it is tedious and, as a maximum - you can lose everything.
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