SLANG "WALL STREET"
Especially often mentioned the names of the four beasts: bulls, bears, pigs and sheep. As they say, bulls make money, bears make money, pigs go under the knife. The bull hits the enemy horns from the bottom up. The bull is the buyer, the player who makes the stake on increasing benefits from the growth of prices. Bear strikes the enemy with his paw top-down. The bear is the seller, the player who makes a bet on a fall wins, when prices fall. The pig, the greedy players. Having lost all caution, and they fall under the knife. Only pigs buy or sell too big for them positions, прогорая at the first slight movement of the market is not in their favor. Others burn through передержав position. Sheep - timid players fearfully following the trends, rumors and guru. From time to time, having fastened on itself bull horns or dressed in a bear's skin, try to play the role of experts. However, they are easily recognizable by жалобному блеянию when the exchange experienced hard times.
Buyers want to pay as little as possible, and sellers may take as much as possible. If representatives of both groups will stand each on its own, the deal never take place. No deal - not prices: the prices of the seller and buyer - only their desired price. Торгуйся the seller and the buyer without witnesses, their negotiations could take a long time. However, on the market both поторапливаются. Indeed, around - the mass oscillating observers, which at any moment can become competitors. The abundance of oscillating speculators encourages buyers and sellers be посговорчивее with each other. The transaction is when two people, the buyer and the seller - to evaluate the market equally. Any price is a quick agreement on the values of the market reached exchange crowd and expressed in the fact of fulfillment of the transaction. The price is psychological: it is a momentary balance point between players and troughs. Graphs of prices and trading volumes reflect the psychology of the stock of the crowd (buyers, sellers and wavering observers). Price, rather than specific people or the guru, the chief leader of the stock of the crowd. Winners perceive the price change in their favor as a reward; losers perceive the change in price against them as a punishment. Watching intently for the price, members of the stock of the crowd are blissfully unaware that make it their chief. Spellbound differences in prices players create for yourself an idol.
the BEHAVIOR of the STOCK of the CROWD
Agreement about the value (price) changes all the time. In some cases it is set in a peaceful environment (prices vary a little), the other - in a storm of passions (prices start jumping). An experienced financier tries to choose a moment of calm to log into the game and take profit in the storm. Technical analysis of the market is the study of the psychology of the stock of the crowd. The purpose of technical analysis is to determine the correlation of forces between the bulls and the bears to make a bet on the more powerful group. In case the approximate balance of forces prudent financier stays away. Technical analysis is akin to the polls. This combination of science and art. Scientific part is in the use of statistical methods, indicators and computers; the creative part - interpretation of the received data.
NEED to BE LIKE ALL
the Majority of people feel a strong need to "make all". This primitive urge to join the crowd addles the mind, whenever you need to make a decision about the deal. A successful stockbroker concerned exclusively for itself. He should be strong enough for independent analysis of the market and the performance of its gaming solutions. No athlete will not survive if it will hang a dozen people: his knees he подогнуться. The crowd is silly, but it is stronger than you. She can create exchange trends. In no case do not play against them. Go with the crowd optional, but to go against the crowd extremely risky. The crowd is strong, but primitive; it operates simply and stereotyped. Living in your mind, the stockbroker gets an opportunity to beat the crowd. Members of the mob can catch the correct trend, but not its spread. Joined the group, a man behaves like a child going for parents. Successful dealers live with their minds.
the SOURCE of the MONEY
the Money that you expect that belong to other people who are not going to share with you. Gambling - attempt mutual robbery. On the exchange weight "sheep": they are waiting for when they shall make or going to the slaughter. It is easy, but try to get it: you first have to contend with dangerous competitors.
TRANSITION FROM BANKS FOR INDEPENDENT GAME
at employees Of banks is a psychological advantage: they risk their money. The majority of private owners are not able to restrain themselves and refuse to play at adverse its development. Banks are also strictly control the actions of their stockbrokers (this is the maximum amount of risk per trade and marginal loss in a month). Successful stockbrokers from banks get promotions and bonuses. But larger reward may seem economies whoever produces millions for the firm. Many successful institutional speculators talking about the fact that they are going to go to private traders. But make the transition only a few. Having said goodbye with the company and now risking their own money, they fall into the power of emotions: fear, greed, wild joy, panic. They rarely succeed, playing on his own account. This is another proof that the key to success, and the reason for the failure in psychology. Remember: your goal is not the quantity but the quality of the games.
You should base their game on a carefully thought-out plan of action, and not be tossed about following a change in prices. Record your plan and pin him to the wall. It should specify the conditions of entry and exit from the game. Do not take decisions under the influence of the moment when you are vulnerable to the elements of the stock of the crowd. Observe yourself and for changes in your mood during the game. Record the reasons for their entry into the transaction and rules out of it, including capital controls. In any case, do not change the plan when you have an open position. As in the ancient Greek myth about the sirens, hearing them, enchanted sailors were thrown overboard and drowned. Odysseus, wishing to listen to певуний, ordered the sailors to tie him to a mast, and to fill their ears with wax. So he listened to the sirens, and alive. You уцелеете as a stockbroker, if you tie yourself to the mast game plan and rules of capital management.
Rates rise or fall depending on the greed and fear of sellers and buyers, and not of their number, since the number of purchased and number of contracts traded are equal. When the tendency to increase the bulls are ready to pay more, because expect higher prices in the future. Bears the same, when prices rise, have tight, and they agree to sell at higher prices. A tendency to increase the ends only when the majority of bulls lose morale. Falling prices inspires bears: they are already willing to go on sale for a fall even lower prices. Bulls in fear agree to buy only at a discount. The trend for the decrease ends only when most of the bears lose morale. Greed among buyers and fear among the sellers for a fall - that's the lifting forces of the market. With a very strong sense of increase they already pursue not so much cheapness much for the actual participation - not to miss the rise. The steepness of the ascent depends on the emotional state of traders. If buyers only slightly напористее sellers, the ascent goes gradually. If buyers emotionally suppress the sellers, the market soars. When the market goes up, the sellers on lowering feel trapped: profits melt away, as losses mount. When they rush to buy for closing short positions, lifting becomes almost vertical (as fear a stronger feeling than greed). Eventually, there comes something called "обломным shock.
Comes a huge consignment contracts (since started fixing their profits by those who bought at the beginning of the tendency to increase), but buyers do not have enough money. Bears приободряются. Prepares soil for the trend reversal. Even if the bulls, after recovering from the shock, will raise the market to new heights, they are not the same: they became timid (once doubting the existence of Santa Claus, baby unlikely to again believe in him), and bears bolder. Confusion in the leading group and the enthusiasm of its opponents are pushing a tendency to spread, which is locked oscillators (a bullish divergence/bearish convergence). All of the above and for the downward trend, only exactly the opposite. Exchange technical analyst should be above party membership in the bulls or the bears. He must seek the truth.
Veers to the bulls, looking at the schedule, will think: "wherever there to get their timing right for purchase?" Really good analyst standing above the fray and deprived of preferences and the game on the rise, and the game for a fall. Use the following trick. Suppose you are going to buy. Flip chart upside down and see whether he gives you a signal on sale. If Yes, then you are on the right track. Many dealers believe that the purpose of the exchange of analysis and price forecast. Professionals simply working on the information and make decisions based on the degree of probability of different outcomes. To profit from the stock exchange play predicting the future is not required. You just need to collect information about the stock of the situation, and determine who sets the tone - bulls or bears. You also defining the dominant force exchange group, estimate the probability of the continuation of the current trend. Furthermore, it should be rational distribution of the stock capital. And finally, be mindful of your thoughts and feelings, not to succumb to greed or fear. The stockbroker, who follows these rules, it will gain more than any predictor.
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